In 2014, online gaming in New Jersey generated total revenues of $122 million. The state's 15 percent cut totaled just over $18 million. The first two months of the year saw revenues of less than $8 million, bringing $1.1 million to state coffers.
Given Pennsylvania's size, Payne says the state could conservatively expect revenues of about $120 million annually. "We've got a much larger population than the other states who've already done this," Payne says.
At his proposed tax rate of 14 percent, the state's cut would be about $17 million. If the 28 percent tax rate proposed by state Rep. Davis were to pass, the take would increase to about $33.6 million.
But would that actually make a dent in the state's financial problems?
Jeffrey Sheridan, spokesman for Gov. Tom Wolf, tells City Paper that the governor is "open to having discussions" about online gaming but has taken no position one way or another at this point. "It's something he will look at," Sheridan says. However, Sheridan adds that the state's financial problems — a structural deficit of more than $2 billion, underfunded schools — can't be cured by online gaming. Wolf is also proposing about $3.9 billion in property-tax relief, and that's going to take dedicated revenue streams brought on by a "holistic, fair" tax plan.
"Look, $120 million in new revenues would be a positive for the state," Sheridan says. "But it won't solve these problems that we face."
Rose says the revenues that have come out of online gaming thus far have been "very disappointing." He says Christie wasn't the only one to severely overestimate the amount of money to be made. That, he says, is based on a number of factors.
Because online gaming is still banned by the federal government, some banks and credit-card companies have refused to process gaming payments. Also, because states with legal online gaming won't take bets from residents in any other state, the player pool becomes much smaller, resulting in less money wagered. In an effort to enlarge the player pool for online poker, Delaware and Nevada will soon begin pooling their players to make the game more enticing.
"Right now, it's just too difficult to go online and gamble," Rose says. "First, you don't know if your bank will process your payments, and then say you want to play $5-10 Omaha [poker] at 2 a.m. There are so few players online right now that you might not even be able to find a game."
But what Rose sees as the biggest problems standing in the way of online gaming's success are the games themselves.
"It's a fundamental problem that is just being recognized," he says. "All of the legal forms of gambling in the world are games that were invented in the 19th century or earlier. So you're trying to sell a 19th-century product to a 21st-century consumer.
"Millennials don't like slots and other games that are profitable in land-based casinos. They don't play the lottery because they won't stand for a system where you pick numbers and then wait two days to find out if you've won."
Rose says new consumers, those more likely to play online, want social games.
"What we're waiting on is for someone to develop games as interesting as Candy Crush or Angry Birds that can be used for gambling [and] that casino operators and state regulators can accept," Rose says. "With the level of regulation that gaming receives, that may be a difficult thing to achieve. The successful, profitable Internet-gambling games will look a lot like the most interesting, successful social games."
And that looks to be part of Payne's approach to expanded gambling. He says he wants to give the state's gaming-control board "all the tools it needs to be competitive." His proposal, for example, allows for the pooling of players from other states where gambling is legal and would allow the gaming-control board to determine which games would be authorized for online gaming.
"We want the gaming-control board to be able to do their job, and the last thing we want is for them to have to come back to the legislature to ask for something else," Payne says. "Let's give them the ability to do a bunch of different things. If they can make more money, then Pennsylvania makes more money."